A Simple Multiparametric Score System to Predict In-Hospital Mortality of COVID-19 Patients (preprint)

Background: Several clinical, laboratory and instrumental prognostic indicators for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have been found. Combining all the different predictors in a score would make easier and more accurate the risk assessment of COVID-19 patients. To this purpose, we examined a large number of COVID-19 patients. First, we identified the best predictors of in-hospital mortality at admission. Then, we calculated a score system to capture the contribution of the various prognostic indicators.Methods: Prospective multicenter study (ELCOVID) referring to central-northern Italy. This project is registered on ClinicalTrials.gov (identifier: NCT04367129). COVID-19 patients admitted to the hospital in the period May-September 2020 were enrolled. Clinical, laboratory and electrocardiographic (ECG) records were collected at admission. Patients were followed-up and in-hospital mortality constituted the primary endpoint. A risk scoring system to predict prognosis was derived by independent predictors of in-hospital mortality.Findings: A total of 1014 patients fulfilled inclusion criteria. Demographic, clinical, laboratories and ECG characteristics were collected. Median age was 74 (IQR 64-82) years, and most patients were male (61%). During a median follow-up of 12 (IQR 7-22) days, 359 (35%) patients died. Age (HR 2.25, 95%CIs 1.72-2.94, p < 0.001), delirium (HR 2.03, 95%CIs 2.14-3.61, p = 0.012), platelets count (HR 0.91, 95%CIs 0.83-0.98, p = 0.018), D-dimer (HR 1.18, 95%CIs 1.01-1.31, p = 0.002), S1Q3T3 pattern and/or RBBB (HR 1.47, 95%CIs 1.02-2.13, p = 0.039) and ECG signs of previous myocardial necrosis (HR 2.28, 95%CIs 1.23-4.21, p = 0.009) were independently associated to in-hospital mortality. The risk scoring system derived had a moderate discriminatory capability and good calibration. A score value ≥4 had a sensitivity of 78,4% and specificity of 65,2% to predict in-hospital mortality.Interpretation: This score system stratifies prognosis and may be important for the management of COVID-19 patients admitted to the hospital.Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov (identifier: NCT04367129).Funding Statement: None.Declaration of Interests: None declared.Ethics Approval Statement: ELCOVID is a prospective observational study approved by the local Ethics Committee and involves 15 hospitals in the Emilia Romagna and Lazio, two regions in northern and central Italy heavily affected by the pandemic.

Covid-19 and low molecular weight heparin therapy: retrospective study of 257 patients. (preprint)

A hypercoagulability state with fatal thrombosis events seems to characterize the clinical worsening of COVID-19 pneumonia. The benefit and safety of anticoagulant doses of low molecular weight heparin (LMWH) in COVID-19 are still unknown. We evaluated in a retrospective cohort study 257 COVID-19 patients consecutively admitted to our COVID-Hospital from February 29, to April 7, 2020. We compared the in-hospital mortality between patients treated with prophylactic or therapeutic doses of LMWH. Of the 257 patients enrolled, 49 (19.1%) died during the hospitalization. Hospital mortality was significantly lower in patients treated with therapeutic doses of LMWH (enoxaparin 70-100 I.U./kg twice daily) (17/126, 13.5%), than in patients treated with prophylactic doses (60-90 I.U./kg once daily) (32/131, 24.4%; χ²=4.98, p = 0.02). In a stratified analysis by ventilation type, the only subgroup of patients who benefited from therapeutic LMWH was that requiring noninvasive mechanical ventilation (OR=0.099, 95% CI 0.028-0.354, p<0.001). No fatal bleedings were observed. In this retrospective study the treatment with therapeutic LMWH is safe and seems to reduce mortality in COVID-19 patients, especially among those who need noninvasive mechanical ventilation. Authors Daniela Aschieri and Marco Stabile contributed equally to this work.